Building a New Pyramid...

Baby Waving Egyptian Flag (wikipedia)

Hosni Mubarak has resigned as president of Egypt.  By all accounts, power has been transferred to the Egyptian armed forces, who have been a stabilizing force throughout this entire democratic revolution.

Assuming the military makes good on its promise of free and fair elections, it is very possible that Egypt could become a democracy in the model of Turkey.  That the nation is heavily Muslim and some, but by no means all, of its laws may be based on Islam, does not mean that it will become a theocracy.

Only a few weeks before this uprising began, there were threats made against Coptic Christians in Egypt.  A bomb actually went off around Coptic Christmas Eve.  However, Muslim Egyptians formed human shields to protect the Copts.  While concerns remain for Egypt's Christians, this is a very encouraging sign and it signals the possibility that Egypt can function as a democracy despite its diversity.

For many weeks now, people were worried about Egypt descending into an Iran like state, but in fact this has not happened.  The Muslim Brotherhood may have Islamist ideas, but it is only one group and they appear more interested in democracy than forming a theocracy.  They have long sought participation in what little democratic processes that Egypt has.  They may, at worst, be like Turkey's ruling party, which espouses some religious overtones, but governors a secular society.

What may be the best bulwark against radicalization is the fact that this revolution was not started by any religious group or particular sect at all.  It was totally organic and natural brought on by legitimate economic and political demands.  These younger people in the streets of Caira, Alexandria, Suez and elsewhere were not asking for the will of Allah to be imposed on their fellow citizens.  They wanted the will of the people to be imposed on the government.





Concerns about Israel's security may be tabled for the moment.  While the Jewish state's security will need to be addressed (the Egypt-Israel treaty is not particularly popular), the treaty will not change immediately.  The Egyptian military has no interest in taking that pact apart while it is in power so for now Israelis may rest easy.

Overall, this is a turning point in world history.  For the first time, an Arab nation may finally be able to determine its own destiny.  Freedom from direct government crackdowns on the press or on speech is something we take for granted here, but long tolerated overseas if it served our interests.  The answer, of course, is not imposing freedom on a nation (Iraq) or just assuming an election is the key to success (Palestine).  It has to flow naturally as it did here in the United States or as it did in Poland and now Egypt.  Only rarely, such as in West Germany and Japan, has democracy come through conquest.  In both those cases, there existed democratic institutions that had been perverted by the regimes in power.

America's delicate dance in the Middle East has always been about oil.  If we can begin to lessen our dependence on the stuff we may be able to stop propping up these regimes for our benefit, which incidentally harms our image among the public and breeds terrorism.  Egypt may not just be an opportunity to sow the seeds of democracy and freedom we have long enjoyed.  It could be a place where we build friendly relationships with Arabs on the street and that will be worh far more money in the bank than another barrel of oil.

Protest Like an Egyptian...

Protesters in Egypt (wikipedia)

World events, it seems, have overtaken our domestic affairs, for the moment at least.  Egypt's rallying cry for democracy has not only distracted President Obama from job creation, but the Republicans on Capitol Hill from the non-job priorities that have come to define their first month of power.  In fact, the result has been a bipartisan endorsement--so far--of the President's careful walk around the history-making events in the storied Arab nation.  The importance, both of Egypt and this upheaval, cannot be understated.

First a little background.  Egypt has not had a representative government, really, well ever.  Four men have led Egypt since it threw off the British backed monarchy that had existed for nearly a century.  British control of Egypt rested on the UK's desire to control the Suez Canal.  Its control predated the European breakup of the Ottoman Empire after WWI.  Although not Egypt's first president, Gamal Nasser, Egypt's second, came to be the face of the Arab worlds anti-Israel campaign.  Nasser led Egypt to war with Israel in 1956 and 1967 and often the representative to the world on anti-Israel rights.

His successor, Answar Sadat, president from 1970 until his assassination in 1981, would be the Egyptian leader that formed a peace treaty with Israel.  That treaty and the imperfect, but coridal Egypt-Israel relationship has become such a critical component of the overall Middle East that Israel's defense posture is such that it assumes no attack would come from Egypt.  Think about how the US assumes no formal military attack would come from Mexico.

Egyptian Pres. Hosni Mubarak (wikipedia)

The threat to that relationship, particularly from a potential Islamist takeover of Egypt, is what scares not just Washington, but all of the Western world.  The Muslim Brotherhood, whose routes go back to British rule, has been liked to a Hamas/Hezbollah leaning Islamic group based in Egypt.  All together, the brotherhood represents the single largest opposition group to Pres. Hosni Mubarak's rule.  Therefore, an Islamic takeover of Egypt to make it look like Gaza, Lebanon, Iran or Afghanistan under the Taliban (an extreme example) may concern for not only Israel security and American interests, but the interests of the entire world.  Whatever you may say about Israel, and there is plenty, it has a right to exist (to what geographic extent is debatable).  It is important to remember, however, that this opposition movement is not controlled or defined by the Brotherhood.  The protesters represent a large and fair cross-section of Egypt and contains many moderate voices.  The Brotherhood, is by all accounts, only one and fairly small component of this movement.