Our 100th: Warren and Peace...

Sen. Gillett (Wikipedia)

The last Senator for Massachusetts from Western Mass (the four westernmost counties if you think Worcester is Western) was Frederick Gillett.  Prior to serving one term in the US Senate, Gillett represented the 2nd Massachusetts Congressional district, the same that Richard Neal represents now.  Gillett would also serve as Speaker of the House from 1919-1925.  Like Neal, Gillett was from Springfield.

This bit of historical trivia is not directly tied to the questions among Democrats in their quest to unseat Scott Brown in 2012.  It does, however speak to some of the challenges that will face the nominee whoever, he or she is.  Western Mass went hard for Brown, save the cities, but then swung back hard for Gov. Deval Patrick last year.  It seems that while Western Mass has lagged the rest of Massachusetts in terms of growth, it often becomes the margin of victory for statewide campaigns with a possible assist from the Cape & Islands.  For the moment, Democrats' problems do include geography, but not east and west.  Rather there problems lies between here and Washington.

Sen. Murray (Wikipedia)

The Boston Globe , perhaps overplaying the discord a bit, did highlight the chasm between the national Democratic party and the State Party this past Saturday.  Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, the chair of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee is tasked with defending the Democrats' 23 seats up in 2012 and possibly grabbing one or two from the Republicans' 10 seats up next year.  She said earlier this week that a strong challenger would be coming forward "within weeks."  The Globe reported that this has rankled the declared candidates notably Alan Khazei, a philanthropist and Bob Massie, a former Lietenant Gubernatorial candidate.  Setti Warren, Mayor of Newton, notably, had no comment.

In some ways the implications of a better candidate is insulting and could, as some in the story suggested, hurt fund-raising in the future if one of the declared candidates does become the nominee.  Some also suggested that it was wrong for the national party to dictate terms as to who should become the nominee.  

On the ground in Massachusetts, some Democrats seem to agree with Gov. Patrick's call for an organic process.  However, the reality is that the field is weak, perhaps as the New York Times noted in a misleadingly titled story, because Ted Kennedy outshone any efforts to build up a bench for Democrats in Massachusetts.

Ex. State Sen. Rossi (Seattle Weekly)

While Sen. Murray could be a bit more tactful in her language, her fear and her desire for a stronger candidate may come about due to her own experiences.  Although on the winning side, Murray witnessed what happens when candidate rise with a track record of failure and the party on the outs lacks a bench.  Dino Rossi an ex-legislator in Washington state, challenged Murray in last year's Senate election, but lost.  Rossi had earlier run for governor in 2004, lost (after an acrimonious recount) and then went for a rematch against incumbent Christine Gregoire only to lose amongst the Obama wave by a larger margin.  Why did Republicans pick him to run?  They had nobody else.  Republicans seem doomed to repeat this in 2012 against Murray's fellow Washingtonian, Senator Maria Cantwell.

While Rossi was hardly an "organic candidate," he was well-known in Washington State's Republican circles.  His candidacy may be instructive for both supporters of an organic nominees and those who want somebody with star power (it may  be a stretch to say Rossi had star power or was organic, however).  Essentially his candidacy exposed the Republicans for reaching "into the Pickle jar" to quote Rachel Maddow.  The organics should worry about an untested candidate lacking name recognition (like Setti Warren) or one with a track record of failure or no political experience...or name recognition. (like Massie, Khazei).  Remember, Brown's best non-monetary strength is name recognition.

Sen. Brown (Wikipedia)

While Scott Brown came from nowhere, his path cannot necessarily be replicated.  Brown's candidacy and term thus far, were/are an exercise in political manufacturing.  Once Coakley let her guard down, the Republican message machine led by Eric Ferhnstrom and others sensed their moment and swooped in.  A combination of out-of-state financing and well placed tropes about Brown's Everymanhood shot him from Wrenthem to Washington.  A Democratic candidate can become likewise known, but should not assume that mirroring Brown's path is possible or without its own perils.

Taking all of this in, risks and all, this leaves the field with three possibly four candidates, declared or otherwise, that can/could overcome the hurdles ahead.  Mayor Warren, Elizabeth Warren the Harvard professor struggling to set up the Consumer Finance Protection Agency against generic Republican tripe about liberty and Mike Capuano, the Congressman from Somerville Coakley defeated in 2009. Other Congressmen are possibilities, but they seem more remote than Capuano.

Our One-Hundredth: Insert Brown Pun Here...

Senate Seal (wikipedia)

With the 2012 campaign underway, albeit somewhat passively, it seems appropriate for us to begin looking into the races (and THE race) that will define the 2012 campaign.    However, any discussion of Congressional races is up in the air pending redistricting, which could either be kind or cruel to Western Massachusetts.  As such we only have the Senate race in Massachusetts and, for now, the Republican nomination for president.  For Senate coverage, look for the "Our One-Hundredth" and for President look for "The 2012 Steps."

Today, as the title suggests, we are talking about the Senate race.  Normally at this stage Brown posts would be limited to stand-alone postings with self-proclaimed clever puns on his name alone, but given recent events it seems the race has undeniably begun.  The hint?  Brown told David Koch, yes that David Koch, that he was "already banging away" for the 2012 year. 

Mayor Warren (Facebook)

What also opened the Senate race floodgates were the movements of some potential Democratic challengers to Brown.  Newton Mayor Setti Warren, Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll and Somerville Congressman Mike Capuano are right now the lead maybes.  Bob Massie, a Somerville activist has already announced and Alan Khazei, who ran in the 2009-10 special is also a possibility.  The dream candidate of the left would be Elizabeth Warren, presently a special assistant to Pres. Obama to set up the Consumer Financial Protection Commission.  Other possibilities are Cong. Ed Markey of Malden and Cong. Stephen Lynch of Boston.  The former has lots of seniority he would have to sacrifice and the latter voted against the Health Care Act (it did not reform enough for him), which dimmed his light among many in the party.

Another poll released recently showed Brown with great approval ratings and comfortable margins over potential challengers.  However, the most telling part of that poll, conducted by Western New England College, was that most of the Demographic challengers had poor name recognition.

Cong. Capuano (Facebook)

Capuano has the tenacity to take on Brown and his truck.  While he had been called rough around the edges and a comment at a union rally drew rebukes (this was before the WI GOP exposed their plot as purely political), Capuano does have an everyman approach and, more importantly, an eye to compromise.  He, unlike many Democrats, often found himself defending his Health Care Law vote from the left.  Capuano, like all of the likely candidates, is from the east, but he might be able to appeal to the west better than the others.  However, Capuano found difficulty gaining traction during his run to succeed Edward Kennedy in the Senate against  Martha Coakley.

Setti Warren offers an intriguing challenge because of his military experience and time as a staffer for both Bill Clinton and John Kerry.  However, in addition to not being well-known, Setti Warren has only been in office 15 months.  He was elected in 2009 and is Newton's first black mayor.  Were he to become a senator, he would become the second African-American elected to the Senate from Massachusetts after Edward Brooke.  Still, Warren's brief time as mayor could hurt him, where he would need the most support: Newton.  Few politicians' home base likes officials leapfrogging to new seats midway through their first term (we criticized Obama back in '08, but Illinois did not seem to care).  Warren may better serve his interests by waiting for Kerry's retirement or even Barney Frank's and start off in Congress.

Driscoll is also a possible candidates, but being Salem's mayor is not like being Newton's what with Newton's insane wealth and powerful Democratic politicians (Barney Frank calls Newton home).  Plus, Driscoll has very young children and a grueling campaign (at least in 2012) could be very hard on her family.

Sen. Brown (wikipedia)

But why are we even talking about this?  We have already laid out how the Democrats are in trouble lacking a name that resonates with voters.  Scott Brown is apparently beloved by Bay Staters (interestingly polls show similar approval of John Kerry).  What are we doing here?

Well, David Koch notwithstanding (which was somewhat reported), there is another terribly under reported story that involved our junior Senator.  You may recall that the House and Senate have agreed to, yet another stopgap budget resolution while the remainder of FY2011 get hammered out.  However, the House did pass a resolution for the remainder of the year, which included $61 billion in draconian discretionary non-security/defense cuts and several arch-conservative wish list items.  That resolution along with a Democratic alternative, could not pass the Senate.  However, Brown did vote to pass the House version.