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Sunday, February 24, 2008

Home Rule...Almost...

I apologize to my dozens of readers for my absence. February is a brutal month academically.

Anyway.

At the last Financial Control Board Meeting, as reported by
Urban Compass, the vote was formally taken to nominally hand over budgetary control over to elected officials. The Control Board would, during this time, act more as a guiding force, a last bastion against imprudent fiscal decisions.

Such a transition is reasonable as it will put some training wheels on Mayor Domenic Sarno's office and the City Council, largely similar to its pre-FCB days or having one or two members who grandstand for the sake of fiscal responsibility.

What was interesting was the little spat that erupted over personnel decision making. Sarno seemingly surprised the State-appointed Control Board members by offering an amendment to grant some personnel decision making power to the mayor. City Council President Bud Williams seconded the amendment. However, Chairman Chris Gabrieli objected to the suddenness of the motion. Board Member Robert Nunes backed Gabrieli, saying a more detailed proposal should be laid out first before the board can be expected to vote. Sarno backed down. It would not have looked good to be obviously voting for a power grab, even if it would be a 2-3 vote against with only state-appointed members opposing.

What bears pondering, is why did Sarno push for this? He claims that he wants to install his "team," but wouldn't that essentially mean a housecleaning of Ryanites in City Hall? Obviously all such people existed at the mercy of the Control Board anyway. Many of these Ryanites owe their loyalty to nobody still in elected office at 36 Court. Sarno's team obviously would.

Sources indicate that, really like most politicians in Springfield, Sarno has connections to some of the more to most unseemly creatures of the city's political establishment. Therefore, it is impossible to avoid questions about the quality of these people. That all depends on what Sarno owes the establishment or how brave he is opposing it. It also depends on where within the establishment he knows/owes people. Some of the elements are just entrenched, but otherwise benign and even competent. There are feuds within it. Families and friends rise and fall within it.

It is too early to declare Sarno's motion insidious. It is not wholly without merit, but it does deserve to be scrutinized. With the fiduciary responsibilities restored somewhat, we can really see what Sarno is made of and make judgements about personnel later.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Longmeadow Landmark Leaving...


Well, admittedly, it is hard to say how much of a landmark Mary Rogeness is, but the alliteration was irresitible.

So the Republican reported today that State Rep Mary Rogeness R-Longmeadow is retiring from the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Rogeness, 66, has served in the General Court since 1991. At the time, according to the article, she was 1 of 38 Republicans in the House. Today, she is one 19.

News of her retirement has already sparked some interest in the seat. Springfield City Councilor Kateri Walsh has expressed interest from the Democratic Side and longtime Brian Lees Aide, Enrico Villamaino III, who ran against Gale Candaras for Lees' Senate seat in 2006 has done the same for the Republicans.

Rogeness's seat poses interesting questions about how this seat will turn come November. To be fair, having only two potential candidates, one from each party, is hardly the race. Expect at least one primary fight before November (explained below).

The largely Longmeadow and Hampden district is arguably the least Blue Collar seat in the immediate Springfield area. It's most blue collar area is probably Monson, although Monson has been on the rise in recent years. The closest comparison might be Angelo Puppolo's district, which includes Wilbraham, but also chunks of Springfield and East Longmeadow.

Not to insult Hampden, but Longmeadow appears to be the locus of the district. Longmeadow is the ATM of Springfield area politics. It may be near impossible to find a candidate for office in greater Springfield who did not have at least a few donors who list a Longmeadow address.

Taken together with Hampden who have one of the most affluent districts in the state, let alone Western Mass, filled with citizens eager to donate to campaigns of both parties and likely to show up to the polls. It will be a spirited campaign to be sure.

As such it will present problems to both as of yet announced potential candidates. If Longmeadow is as much of the locus as it may seem, it may not be interested in having either a Springfielder or somebody from the "other Longmeadow" represent them.


Kateri Walsh would have difficulties because her base of support is largely within Springfield, which consists of only a sliver of Rogeness's district (2 precincts). She certainly has friends throughout Hampden County, but do they span the length and breadth of the Second Hampden? Walsh would also need to really convince voters. The same politics that work on voters in Springfield may not work on White Collar suburbanites. Walsh has one key advantage: her brother, Hampden County District Attorney William Bennett. Bennett lives in Longmeadow and having been DA for some time must have pockets of support in every town in the County. At the same time, Springfielders may fear a 10th spot return of supposed Asselin-friend former City Councilor Morris Jones.

Enrico Villamaino may face different questions. First of all he is still unknown to a number of voters, although the 2006 campaign did take him through territory that included much of Rogeness' district. He was terribly outgunned compared to Candaras and the Mass GOP essentially ceded the seat to her. If the GOP wants to keep control of this important House seat they may want to pick a more seasoned, wealthier, or more visible candidate. Expect a prominent lawyer, selectman or another official to materialize as a GOP candidate.

With open seats rare at best and competitive races rarer still, the local press and the public will be all over this race. Because the GOP is still categorized as an endangered species, press coverage will probably include the Globe, too. As of now, Boston.com only has an AP report on Rogeness' retirement.

More generally, the race may serve as a bellwether for the GOP's health for the foreseeable future. If they lose the seat, then recovery will not be for a while. If they keep it, depending on how things go for the legislature between now and 2010, the GOP may be in a position to make some gains in both the House and Senate.

*Rogeness photo from Mass.gov

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Oh, NO! 0-8!: What a MESS!..

Well the votes have been counted from Super Tuesday and the winner is...[TBA].

Well, in case you were living under your rock last night or this morning, yesterday was Super Tuesday. Big states from California to New York to Georgia to Connecticut to our Commonwealth voted yesterday. Nationwide, the results were split, three ways on the GOP side and two ways on the Dems' side.

For the GOP, McCain emerged at the undisputed frontrunner picking up big states like CA and NY. However, neither Mitt Romney, who won Mass and Utah, nor Fmr. AR Gov. Mike Huckabee, who took AR, GA, AL & more southern states, conceded defeat.

McCain's stunning surge gained him support in winner take all states like NY and proportional states like California. Between the GOP's largely winner-take-all system and the three way splits in some states, it remains difficult to gage where all of this is going. In addition Romney is crying foul over W. Virginia Caucuses, which Huckabee won when all McCain supporters joined Huckabee when it was clear the AZ Senator could not win there.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama took more states pulling ahead particularly in Caucus states and taking, among others, home state of Illinois, GA, CT, AL, MO, and DE. Clinton held onto Massachusetts and scored Oklahoma, Tennessee, NY, NJ, AZ, and the biggest prize CALI!

For the Democrats the results are more complicated that it seems. Due to the proportionality of delegates a candidate gets to votes in each Congressional district in the Democratic races, the winning of states belies the results. Both Obama and Clinton will be delegates in every state. They will get roughly equal delegates in close states like CT, MO, NM, and oddly enough in a state that was not close, AL. Obama for example will get a nice piece of Massachusetts delegates because although he lost statewide, he got sizeable support in the Mass 1st and the Mass 8th (Boston, Cambridge, Chelsea). Of those cities Clinton only won Chelsea. The Mass 1st support is more scattered and will be tempered by Clinton victories in Pittsfield, Westfield, and W. Spfld.

Either way most estimates put Clinton ahead for the Democrats in terms of delegates. California's delegate count remains an open question. Congressional races on not denotes, but Clinton won well in LA County, Orange County, Santa Clara County, and San Diego County, all rich with Congressional districts, and thus delegates. However, this weekend, Washington and Maine hold caucuses and Louisiana hold a primary. Reports indicate that Obama will try to capitalize on his wins in the South and take LA and Clinton is not putting up a fight. This strategy is very dangerous as the other prizes either are tough to win or offer less. Maine has only a few delegates and Washington, well there is a statue to Lenin in Seattle there. Louisiana should be fought over, therefore.

Time is short, however. After this weekend, the Potomac Primary will be next Tuesday. Clinton, especially if she cannot pull a win in Washington, needs to win big here both in Virginia and in Maryland. DC is a foregone conclusion in a lot of ways, but she may find support in NW DC, the Capital's more affluent-middle class quadrant. Either way, high noon will not be next week either. Wisconsin the following week will not either. Rather, this fight will probably be decided March 4th. Ohio and TX vote then. Both delegate rich states and both Obama and Clinton could win in either one. If no clear victor is found after that, there are some big primaries left, namely PA and NC, but there may not be enough delegates left to secure a win. It could force Superdelegates to make the choice or force the DNC to allow FL and MI's delegates to be counted.

On the GOP side, the race will go on. If McCain does not get the magic number before the convention, it will be a sight to see. A floor fight is almost assured and there are no superdelegates (or not enough anyway) to change the outcome. The GOP will be weakened coming out of the gate unless it can have a smooth convention. No matter what happens in Denver to the Dems it will not be as hurtful.