Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Springfield 2011 Preliminary Results...

The results are in for the Springfield 2011 Preliminary.  Turnout was expected at about 10%, but ended up being nearly 15%.  Still abysmal, but above average for past Springfield races, very probably influenced by the presence of the city's first mayoral primary in many years.  The turnout exceeded the roughly 9.5% of 2009's preliminary which featured several competitve ward races.  Only one ward race is contested this year in Ward 8, but there are only two candidates and therefore no preliminary.

1. Domenic Sarno: 8,254 60%
2. Jose Tosado: 3,170 23%
3. Antonette Pepe: 2,269 16%
4. Write-in: 19 0.09%

Sarno surged beyond expectations tonight.  While this post is not intended to play pundit, his showing well-exceeded expectations.  We had assumed that he would clear a high forties plurality, but ultimately he socked both Tosado and Pepe, which sets him up quite well for the general.  With the majority plus that Sarno gleaned it makes it hard to really stack Tosado's triumphy over Pepe.  However, her earlier attacks on Sarno do give Tosado some room to criticize the tornado response.

City Council (Due to Top 5 ranking percentages are omitted)

1. Thomas Ashe: 6,885
2. Tim Rooke: 5,955
3. Kateri Walsh: 5,642
4. Bud Williams: 5,117
5. Jimmy Ferrera: 5,087
6. Justin Hurst: 4,245
7. Amaad Rivera: 3,179
8. Miguel Soto: 2,398
9. Charles Rucks: 2,327
10. Joseph Fountain: 2,111
11. Bruce Adams: 2,036
12. John Stevens: 1,557
13. David Ciampi: 1,374
14. Write-in: 149

No surprises here, really.  All of the incumbents got into the top 5, although the shocker is that Tom Ashe surged to number one.  Conventional wisdom would have put Tim Rooke there and others suggested he (along with Jimmy Ferrera) were the most likely to fall out of the top 5.  That Bud Williams clawed into 4th is no surprise given his name recognition.  Moreover that Justin Hurst, the scion the the well-known political family and Amaad Rivera topped out the bottom five is also not surprising given name recognition.

While these results could presage the actual votes in November it is important to remember history.  In 2007, Pat Markey, who was making his first (and to date only) bid for City Council placed quite high in the preliminary (by our estimate 2nd behind Jose Tosado).  By the general election he ended up with 7th place, which earned him a place on the council.  Jimmy Ferrera and Bruce Stebbins placed behind him, but also got seats on the council.  Likewise Morris Jones placed in the top 9 in the preliminary, but failed to make the cut in the general.  Kateri Walsh did not even place in the top 9 in 2007 preliminary, but ended up fifth in the general.  So the council could be in line for a shake-up.  Ferrera's slide to the bottom of the top may leave him the most like incumbent to get the heave-ho if anybody at all does.

We'll find out what it will all mean in six weeks.

No comments: